The analysis proposed in the MOSUS project is based on an existing multi-country, multi-sectoral input-output simulation model (GLODYM), covering trade and financial flows between all European countries as well as flows between Europe and all other economically relevant countries/regions of the world. Taking this global perspective for research on sustainable development options within Europe is heavily supported by commitments of the European Union, as formulated e.g. in the Gothenburg Conclusions or the recently presented Sustainable Development Strategy.
To fulfil the analytical requirements of this project, the underlying economic model will be expanded in two ways. First, the model will be extended with detailed input-output models of the accession countries, in order to allow for a country specific analysis also of these prospective members of the Union. Second, a database of the physical domain, comprising domestic material inputs, energy inputs and land use, will be established and linked to the econometric model to enable comprehensive and quantitative economic-environmental assessments and identification of the most important socio-economic driving forces causing environmental change. The model developed in this project therefore is a comprehensive and sophisticated tool to quantify scenarios and assess their impacts on multiple dimensions of sustainable development, comprising the economic, the social and the environmental sphere.
Figure 1: The four project phases and the eight work packages
To achieve the project’s objectives, the work will be carried out in four phases and eight work packages (see Figure 1). In Phase 1 (months 1-9, WP 1) the socio-economic factors will be identified, which are most relevant and responsible for causing environmental changes. Scenarios will be formulated, which consider key environmental policy instruments, as listed, for instance, in the 6th Environment Action Programme of the European Union. Phase 1 will also identify the details of necessary adaptations of the existing economic model. Note, that WP 1 will last until about month 21 to allow for iterations on scenarios. In Phase 2 (WP 2 and 3), ranging from about month 7-19, the model will be extended according to the requirements identified in Phase 1 in order to provide the integrated economic-environmental simulation model. In Phase 3 (months 16-26, WP 4) the model developed in Phase 2 will be used to quantify the current use of natural resources by European economies and to simulate the scenarios formulated in Phase 1. In Phase 4 (months 23-36, WP 5, 6 and 7) the scenario results will be evaluated with regard to their consequences in all three dimensions of sustainability, according to the principles laid out in the “Sustainability Reporting Guidelines on Economic, Environmental, and Social Performance”, published by the Global Reporting Initiative in 2000. This analysis will deliver best policy measures and actions for contributing towards sustainability in Europe. Results and recommendations will be disseminated in publications, through CD-ROMs, and will be presented and discussed in workshops with stakeholders from civil society. The project co-ordination (WP 8) will operate throughout the entire duration of the project (months 1-36) and will include regular co-ordination meetings with the members of the MOSUS management board as well as external scientific and societal advisors.
